GitHub Repository
“To empower additional modeling efforts, the complete time series of all daily PVI scores and data are available at https://github.com/COVID19PVI/data. “
12 Key Indicators
“[The authors] assembled U.S. county- and state-level datasets into 12 key indicators across four major domains: current infection rates (infection prevalence, rate of increase), baseline population concentration (daytime density/traffic, residential density), current interventions (social distancing, testing rates), and health and environmental vulnerabilities (susceptible populations, air pollution, age distribution, comorbidities, health disparities, and hospital beds).”
Three types of modeling
“Our modeling efforts directly address the discussion in [6], by contextualizing factors such as racial differences with corrections for socioeconomic factors, health resource allocation, and co-morbidities, plus highlighting place- based risks and resource deficits that might explain spatial distributions. Specifically, three types of modeling efforts were performed and are regularly updated. First, epidemiological modeling on cumulative case- and death-related outcomes provides insights into the epidemiology of the pandemic. Second, dynamic time-dependent modeling provides similar outcome estimates as national-level models, but with county-level resolution. Finally, a Bayesian machine learning approach provides data-driven, short-term forecasts. “
Blackness and PM 2.5
“With respect to factors affecting COVID-19 related mortality, we find that the proportion of Black residents and the PM2.5 index of small-particulate air pollution are the most significant predictors among those included, reinforcing conclusions from previous reports[7]. An increase of one percentage point of Black residents is associated with a 3.3% increase in the COVID-19 death rate. The effect of a 1 g/m3 increase in PM2.5 is associated with an approximately 16% increase in the COVID-19 death rate, a value at the high end of a previously reported confidence interval from a report in late April 2020[7] when deaths had reached 38% of the current total.”
Machine learning and prediction
“To accurately predict future cases and mortality, it is necessary to account for the fluid nature of the data. Accordingly, we developed a Bayesian spatiotemporal random-effects model that jointly describes the log-observed and log-death counts to build local forecasts. Log-observed cases for a given day are predicted using known covariates (e.g., population density, social distancing metrics), a spatiotemporal random-effect smoothing component, and the time- weighted average number of cases for these counts. This smoothed time-weighted average is related to a Euler approximation of a differential equation; it provides modeling flexibility while approximating potential mechanistic models of disease spread. The smoothed case estimates are used in a similar spatiotemporal model predicting future log-death counts based on a geometric mean estimate of the estimated number of observed cases for the previous seven days as well as the other data streams. The resulting county-level predictions and corresponding confidence intervals are shown (Fig. 1)."
Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343642027_The_COVID-19_Pandemi…
