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JAdams: Imagining the Oil Industry's Future

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Though showing signs of recovery, the ongoing pandemic and recent surge across the US threatens oil industry once again.  “Oil prices have made a surprisingly steady return from the collapse ignited by lockdowns as the virus pandemic grew earlier this year. Crude settled above $40 a barrel Monday for the first time since plunging to negative-$37 on April 20, when the world was awash in unwanted oil. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, settled at $38.49 Friday, down slightly from Thursday. … The recovery, however, now looks tenuous, as no one is certain whether the current surge in COVID-19 cases could lead to business shutdowns and depressed consumer activity. Harris County on Friday issued a new ‘stay home, work safe’ advisory, asking residents to stay home except for essential trips, to work from home if possible and to avoid unnecessary travel.”

Economists say the threat of a “double-dip” is contingent on the scale and level of shutdown initiated by state governments in response to the surge. “A double dip in oil demand and prices will depend on whether state and local governments impose widespread lockdowns or allow businesses to remain open with requirements for face masks and social distancing. … Karr Ingham, a petroleum economist with the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, said he can’t imagine that state and local governments would impose the type of widespread and strict lockdowns seen in March and April because of the dire economic consequences that such a move would have. It’s unclear how much political willpower there is to mandate a second lockdown, which would undoubtedly prompt public outrage, he said.”

JAdams: Emission Reductions and Economic Recovery

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“Carbon emissions reductions brought on by U.S. coronavirus lockdowns could be reversed by the pandemic's long-term damage to the clean energy sector, a new study has found. … To avoid an increase in emissions, lawmakers in the United States should pass stimulus measures to invest in clean energy technologies and boost renewable energy projects and jobs, the study said. If the "silver lining" of the pandemic so far has been reductions in global emissions, then such investments in the United States could be another positive development to come out of the crisis, Gillingham said.”

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Jadams: Survey of Oil Energy Firms

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Results from a survey of 168 energy firms show that “Of the oil producers and service companies that responded, only 3% said drilling activity will recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year, while 39% said it will take to 2022 or later and 16% — roughly 1 in 6 energy firms — said it will never recover. The Dallas Fed carried out the survey from June 10-18.”

UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation, Fukushima Report

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The report encompasses reports on the proceedings of the UN Scientific Comittee during its 60th session, May 2013. The UN report presents an unbiased plethora of data surmising Fukushima radiation exposure to both human an biological life. It primarily focuses on 2 reports detailing aspects of radiation exposure during the 2011 nuclear accident. The first report gives estimated levels of radiation experienced by individuals and non-human biota. Human individuals estimates are based on age and ongoing proximity to the accident. Evacuated adult citizens had an estimated exposure <10 mSv, while workers experienced doses >10mSv, with the highest exposure  an estimated 100 mSv. It places these values within the context of lifelong anticipated exposure and international expected exposures. This first report also briefly discusses effects beyond radiation, including the adverse outcomes thousands faced by evacuating. The second report concentrates on radiation exposure of children during the accident. While it concludes longer epidemological studies are needed to accurately assess the prevailing biolgogical effects, several important facts are highlighted. At a given radiation dose, children are more at risk of tumor induction than adults. In addition to this increased radiosensitivity (partially due to physical factors such as size), children also demonstrate increased prevalence of several cancers. These include leaukemia, brain, and thyroid cancers, all of which show radiosensitivity. The report also suggests narrowing the scope of inquiry, as radiation-induced cancers can be influenced by factors such as age and gender.

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This report is comprised of several parts, beginning with an introduction. The report describes radiation exposure and effects that have been linked to the Fukushima disaster. Then it outlines future goals of increased awareness of the risks of nuclear disasters and the effects of radiation exposure as well as the need for a network of experts capable of sharing knowledge and expertise when needed. Finally the report mentions further studies being completed concerning the effect of radiation on children.