California Reality Check on COVID-19 Math

"A reality check on the math': What's ahead for California and Covid-19." Guardian, 8 April 2020

"California officials this week described a “slow and steady increase” in confirmed coronavirus infections, predicting that the peak of the state’s outbreak will occur in mid to late May. Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine, explained what was behind the state’s projections – and what Californians can expect next. ... Earlier projections estimated California would see its peak in mid-April. ... Vaccination would be a huge game-changer, but that looks 12 months away or more. So we all need to steel ourselves for doing this at least up until 1 June and potentially longer."


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