Though showing signs of recovery, the ongoing pandemic and recent surge across the US threatens oil industry once again. “Oil prices have made a surprisingly steady return from the collapse ignited by lockdowns as the virus pandemic grew earlier this year. Crude settled above $40 a barrel Monday for the first time since plunging to negative-$37 on April 20, when the world was awash in unwanted oil. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, settled at $38.49 Friday, down slightly from Thursday. … The recovery, however, now looks tenuous, as no one is certain whether the current surge in COVID-19 cases could lead to business shutdowns and depressed consumer activity. Harris County on Friday issued a new ‘stay home, work safe’ advisory, asking residents to stay home except for essential trips, to work from home if possible and to avoid unnecessary travel.”
Economists say the threat of a “double-dip” is contingent on the scale and level of shutdown initiated by state governments in response to the surge. “A double dip in oil demand and prices will depend on whether state and local governments impose widespread lockdowns or allow businesses to remain open with requirements for face masks and social distancing. … Karr Ingham, a petroleum economist with the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, said he can’t imagine that state and local governments would impose the type of widespread and strict lockdowns seen in March and April because of the dire economic consequences that such a move would have. It’s unclear how much political willpower there is to mandate a second lockdown, which would undoubtedly prompt public outrage, he said.”